== Reproduction (Python, independent of authors' R) == all cases 2254 verified 1678 unexp x logIT r=-0.126 p=3.6e-05 rho=-0.133 N=1075 natural x logIT r=0.132 p=3.4e-06 rho=0.134 N=1235 age x logIT r=0.042 p=0.16 rho=0.030 N=1157 joint OLS: b_unexp=-0.0306 p=0.027 | b_nat=0.0637 p=0.115 | N=1053 median size death_unexp 0.0 21.0 114 1.0 20.0 69 2.0 17.0 108 3.0 17.0 76 4.0 12.0 708 drop 0->4: 43% == Robustness checks (not in authors' script) == IT range months: -3.0 1800.0 | negative IT n = 1 | IT>20y n = 37 excl. negative IT r=-0.124 p=4.3e-05 rho=-0.132 N=1074 excl. IT > 20 years r=-0.113 p=0.00026 rho=-0.126 N=1038 excl. same family (4) r=-0.118 p=0.0018 rho=-0.127 N=695 same family only r=-0.113 p=0.028 rho=-0.118 N=380 no family link (0) only r=-0.170 p=0.0049 rho=-0.153 N=272 log constant +4 r=-0.126 p=3.6e-05 rho=-0.133 N=1075 log constant +13 r=-0.117 p=0.00012 rho=-0.133 N=1075 Mann-Whitney IT, rating 4 vs 0-3: U=109763 p=2.9e-05, medians 12 vs 18 bootstrap 95% CI for median difference (0-3 minus 4): [3.0, 11.0] months median regression slope: -2.67 months per rating step, p=1.92e-08 == Coding/missingness checks == IT by whether unexpectedness was coded: median size unexp_missing False 14.0 1075 True 24.0 244 unexpectedness rating distribution (%): death_unexp 0.0 10.0 1.0 6.0 2.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 4.0 68.0 Name: proportion, dtype: float64 crosstab naturalness x unexpectedness: death_unexp 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 NATURAL_DEATH 0.0 9 8 35 58 728 1.0 119 68 89 30 134